It was two months ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery admonished him for not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his performances were an indicator or the reason for the side's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, in contrast, the sideline response was far more favourable. After the England international curled home his second strike to reclaim the lead for Villa, Emery tore off his jacket, threw his arms wide and roared. Villa continued to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win any of their first six matches, now sit only three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
This is a particularly tough question to resolve. History, the traditional standing of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing during this run, even as the wins have stacked up.
As per the data, on just two occasions has the team registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side that have put together ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – however right now the margins are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach seems to be to trade blows with the opposition before hoping their talisman to save the day with a couple of clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened when facing the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, bent right inside the upright from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of his first as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. Villa have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent Villa will encounter in the near future. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting the football into the net's top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Could it be a different scenario whereby, rather than luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures could still return to peak condition.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent could transform into the player he was in Germany.
- The defensive duo are due to return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky defence.
This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt earlier this season, no one envisioned the young forward as the year closed would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
